India has been focusing on fostering trade relationships with ASEAN and continued to discuss the new agreement. The economic growth forecast seems to remain positive. There have been further withdrawal of funds by foreign portfolio investors. There have been interesting usage of artificial intelligence to translate and publish judgement of the Supreme Court and High Courts.
IMF APAC Report – The International Monetary Fund recently release its Regional Economic Outlook for the Asia and Pacific region titled ‘Resilient Growth but Higher Risks’. As per this report, growth in 2024 for India has been revised up by 0.2 percentage point to 7.0 percent relative to the April forecast, as rural consumption is benefiting from an improved agricultural season, and as public infrastructure investment continues to expand. These trends are expected to continue in 2025. With this, India remains the world’s fastest growing major economy. The report mentions that the APAC region is forecast to contribute roughly 60 percent to global growth in 2024. At the same time, risks have increased, reflecting rising geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the strength of global demand, and potential for financial volatility. Demographic change will act increasingly as a brake on activity, though structural shifts into high-productivity sectors such as tradable services hold promise to sustain robust growth.
ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement – The 6th ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) Joint Committee and related meetings for discussions on the review of the AITIGA were held from 15-22 November 2024 in Vanijya Bhawan, New Delhi. The AITIGA Joint Committee met for 2 days from 21-22 November 2024 and the meeting was co-chaired by Additional Secretary, Department of Commerce, India, Shri Rajesh Agrawal, and Deputy Secretary General (Trade), Ministry of Investment, Trade & Industry, Malaysia, Ms. Mastura Ahmad Mustafa. The leads and delegates from all 10 ASEAN countries viz. Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand & VietNam participated in the meeting. There are 8 Sub-Committees under the AITIGA Joint Committee to negotiate aspects related to market access, rules of origin, SPS measures, standards and technical regulations, customs procedures, economic and technical cooperation, trade remedies, and legal and institutional provisions. All the 8 Sub-Committees met during this round of negotiations. Among these, 5 Sub-Committees managed to meet physically on the sidelines of the 6th AITIGA Joint Committee meeting. ASEAN as a group is one of the major trade partners of India with about 11% share in India’s global trade. The bilateral trade in 2023-24 was USD 121 Bn and reached USD 73 Bn during April-October 2024 with a 5.2% growth. The review of AITIGA will be a step forward in enhancing trade with the ASEAN region in a sustainable manner. All previous meetings have been covered by Asia Law Portal, with the last update here.
Moody’s Ratings – Moody’s Ratings recently forecast a 7.2 per cent GDP growth for India in 2024, saying the Indian economy is in a sweet spot, but inflation risks may prompt the RBI to retain a relatively tight monetary policy this year. Moody’s said that despite the near-term uptick, retail inflation should moderate toward the Reserve Bank’s target in the coming months as food prices ease amid higher sowing and adequate food grain buffer stocks. The retail inflation scaled to a 14-month high of 6.21, breaching the RBI’s upper tolerance limit, on a sharp jump in vegetable prices. The agency said sporadic food price pressures continue to inject volatility in the disinflation trajectory. In its Global Macro Outlook 2025-26, the US-based rating agency said household consumption is poised to grow, fuelled by increased spending during the ongoing festive season and a sustained pickup in rural demand. Additionally, rising capacity utilization, upbeat business sentiment and the government’s continued thrust on infrastructure spending should support private investment. India’s real GDP expanded 6.7 per cent year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024, driven by a revival in household consumption, robust investment and strong manufacturing activity. There are indications of a steady economic momentum in the July-September quarter as well.
FPIs Selling Spree Continues – Foreign investors pulled out ₹21,612 crore ($2.56 billion) from the Indian equity market in November, mainly owing to the rising U.S. bond yields, strengthening dollar and expectation of a slowdown in the domestic economy. While the sell-off continues, the quantum of net outflow significantly reduced compared to October, when FPIs recorded a massive withdrawal of ₹94,017 crore ($11.2 billion). With the latest pull out, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have experienced total net outflow of ₹15,019 crore in 2024 so far.
Translation of Judgments of Supreme Court and High Courts – The Supreme Court of India has adopted the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) language technology in translation of judicial documents. AI has also been deployed for transcribing oral arguments, particularly in Constitution Bench matters since February 2023. A Committee headed by a Hon’ble Judge of the Supreme Court of India has been constituted to monitor the translation of important Supreme Court and High Court judgments into vernacular languages. The Committee is having regular meetings with the Sub-Committees of High Courts comprising Hon’ble Judges to expedite the process of translation. The AI Translation Committees of the High Courts are monitoring the entire work relating to translation of the Supreme Court and High Court Judgments into vernacular language. As on date, 17 High Courts have already started e-High Court Reports (e-HCR)/e-Indian Law Reports (e-ILR). As on November 25, 2024, 36,316 Supreme Court Judgments have been translated in Hindi language and 42,457 Judgments of Supreme Court have been translated in other 17 regional languages and the same are available on the e-SCR portal.
